Seasonality of oil production
The easiest oil trade is based on the seasonality of oil production and refining from early October to early December and is sold short.
The first component of oil seasonality is associated with a decline in Atlantic hurricane activity. It’s very simple: storms disrupt tanker logistics and oil production on floating platforms. Statistically, this significantly increases the cost of oil production and transportation by tanker. Consequently, when hurricane activity subsides, oil production and transportation costs fall. As a result, oil prices fall.
The downturn in Atlantic hurricane activity begins in September, but the number of tropical storms is still very high throughout October. From the end of October, the number of hurricanes decreases significantly.